United States Elections Project
   
 

2010 Turnout Rate and Early Voting Rate Forecasts

Last updated: November 3, 2010 4:01 AM

UPDATE: post-election turnout estimates are now available.

I have constructed pre-election turnout rate and early voting rate forecasts based on the early voting to date in the 2010 election and early voting and turnout rates for comparable past elections. The turnout rate is the number of votes divided by the voting-eligible population. The early vote rate is the number of early votes divided by all votes (NOT the voting-eligible population).

The 2010 voting-eligible population estimates are available here. Please note that the national voting-eligible population includes an estimate of 4.9 million eligible overseas military and civilians, but the state numbers do not. Thus, the states' voting-eligible populations do not sum to national voting-eligible population.

I plan to continue tweaking these numbers as more early voting data becomes available. Early Wednesday morning -- around 5am East coast time -- I plan to post turnout projections based on the turnout reported on election night and a forecast of the outstanding vote that has yet to be reported.

Note that by "early vote" I am referring to all votes cast in-person prior to Election Day or by mail. For mail votes, I include mail ballots returned on Election Day, which can be a sizable number in some states.

UPDATE 11/1 @4:45pm: Based on today's early vote update from Colorado, I have slightly increased Colorado's forecasted turnout rate and early vote percentage.

State Voting-Eligible Population Turnout Rate Estimate Early Vote Rate Estimate
United States 218,054,301 41.3% 28.9%
Alabama 3,457,019 40.0% 3.5%
Alaska 493,692 54.0% 27.0%
Arizona 4,331,851 40.0% 50.0%
Arkansas 2,079,647 42.0% 45.0%
California 22,882,532 44.0% 50.0%
Colorado 3,578,616 54.0% 70.0%
Connecticut 2,507,296 48.0% 6.5%
Delaware 631,634 44.0% 3.5%
District of Columbia 470,144 30.0% 6.0%
Florida 12,812,802 46.0% 42.5%
Georgia 6,596,556 35.0% 32.0%
Hawaii 930,624 44.0% 40.0%
Idaho 1,051,978 46.0% 20.0%
Illinois 8,934,072 43.0% 14.0%
Indiana 4,678,739 37.0% 15.0%
Iowa 2,220,718 50.0% 33.0%
Kansas 1,995,927 44.0% 22.0%
Kentucky 3,197,471 44.0% 5.0%
Louisiana 3,256,637 39.0% 12.0%
Maine 1,032,820 55.0% 22.0%
Maryland 3,944,006 48.0% 16.0%
Massachusetts 4,783,819 49.0% 5.0%
Michigan 7,288,055 49.0% 20.0%
Minnesota 3,799,328 60.0% 7.0%
Mississippi 2,129,092 28.0% 4.0%
Missouri 4,433,443 49.0% 7.0%
Montana 753,666 50.0% 40.0%
Nebraska 1,271,875 42.0% 20.0%
Nevada 1,692,499 43.0% 65.0%
New Hampshire 1,011,125 47.0% 7.0%
New Jersey 5,811,886 36.0% 8.0%
New Mexico 1,400,217 44.0% 50.0%
New York 13,355,984 36.0% 5.0%
North Carolina 6,760,227 32.0% 45.0%
North Dakota 496,664 45.0% 35.0%
Ohio 8,637,282 49.0% 25.0%
Oklahoma 2,653,821 39.0% 8.0%
Oregon 2,780,456 52.0% 100.0%
Pennsylvania 9,565,259 45.0% 4.0%
Rhode Island 755,179 51.0% 4.0%
South Carolina 3,375,958 38.0% 11.0%
South Dakota 600,029 58.0% 27.0%
Tennessee 4,659,865 37.0% 42.0%
Texas 15,407,666 31.0% 48.0%
Utah 1,843,282 34.0% 25.0%
Vermont 493,696 55.0% 20.0%
Virginia 5,689,910 33.0% 7.0%
Washington 4,728,332 47.0% 100.0%
West Virginia 1,418,691 36.0% 25.0%
Wisconsin 4,203,366 53.0% 10.0%
Wyoming 405,861 50.0% 22.0%