2010 Turnout Rate and Early Voting Rate Forecasts

Last updated: November 3, 2010 4:01 AM

UPDATE: post-election turnout estimates are now available.

I have constructed pre-election turnout rate and early voting rate forecasts based on the early voting to date in the 2010 election and early voting and turnout rates for comparable past elections. The turnout rate is the number of votes divided by the voting-eligible population. The early vote rate is the number of early votes divided by all votes (NOT the voting-eligible population).

The 2010 voting-eligible population estimates are available here. Please note that the national voting-eligible population includes an estimate of 4.9 million eligible overseas military and civilians, but the state numbers do not. Thus, the states' voting-eligible populations do not sum to national voting-eligible population.

I plan to continue tweaking these numbers as more early voting data becomes available. Early Wednesday morning -- around 5am East coast time -- I plan to post turnout projections based on the turnout reported on election night and a forecast of the outstanding vote that has yet to be reported.

Note that by "early vote" I am referring to all votes cast in-person prior to Election Day or by mail. For mail votes, I include mail ballots returned on Election Day, which can be a sizable number in some states.

UPDATE 11/1 @4:45pm: Based on today's early vote update from Colorado, I have slightly increased Colorado's forecasted turnout rate and early vote percentage.