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Recent Entries 2008 Current Population Survey 2008 Voter Registration Statistics (Nearly) Final 2008 Early Voting Statistics The Return of the Voter: Voter Turnout in the 2008 Presidential Election 2008 Virginia Election Administration Survey Pew Charitable Trust Report: Data for Democracy Early Voting Stats: Special Encore Georgia Senate Run-off Edition Preliminary 2008 Turnout Rates Demographics of 2004 Voters: Current Population Survey Analysis of 2008 New Registrations and Purging in Selected States New 2000-2006 Turnout Rates and 2008 Voting-Age Population and Voting-Eligible Population Estimates
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Elections BlogA Proactive Bailout for the Voting Rights ActIn response to the recent NAMUDNO v Holder decision, I argue in this The American Prospect blog post that Congress needs to amend the Voting Rights Act to provide for "proactive" bailout, i.e., that the Department of Justice should review which jurisdictions are eligible for escape from coverage of Section 5 of the Act. This argument and some of the key concepts discussed in the Supreme Court's NAMUDNO deliberations - particularly which jurisdictions would be currently covered if the nearly 40 year old voter participation coverage formula is updated - I first articulated in:
Posted Wednesday, June 24, 2009 2008 Current Population SurveyThe 2008 Current Population Survey, Voting and Registration Supplement data have been released. There are plenty of interesting patterns to observe in this survey, which is the best source for demographic characteristics of the electorate. However, I note that the CPS reports a slight decline in turnout from 2004, which I attribute to survey methodology errors. I do not believe that these errors greatly undermine the usefulness of the 2008 survey. Posted Sunday, April 5, 2009 2008 Voter Registration StatisticsIn 2008, the nation experienced a 5.4% increase in registration over 2004, from 177.4 million to 187.0 million registrants. Statistics from the twenty-nine states that have partisan voter registration suggest that the national increase came primarily from Independents and Democrats. Among these twenty-nine states, the number of registrants identifying with the Democratic Party increased 10.8%, compared to 0.5% for Republicans and 12.0% for Independents. Posted Friday, March 6, 2009 (Nearly) Final 2008 Early Voting StatisticsApproximately 30% of all votes cast in the 2008 general election were cast prior to Election Day. The statistics and some of the nitty-gritty details behind them can be found here... Posted Sunday, January 11, 2009 The Return of the Voter: Voter Turnout in the 2008 Presidential ElectionI discuss voter turnout in the long term, increases and decreases among the states from 2004, and some notable trends in the way in which Americans vote in this recap of voter turnout in the 2008 presidential election published in The Forum, an on-line political science journal. Posted Sunday, January 11, 2009 2008 Virginia Election Administration SurveyTo understand how Virginia’s elections are run the Voter Registrars Association of Virginia in consultation with George Mason University Associate Professor Michael McDonald and PhD student Matthew Thornburg conducted a survey of the Commonwealth’s local general registrars and electoral board members on issues such as workload, human resources, administrative resources, training and conducting elections. This report offers a sobering assessment of pressing needs facing Virginia's election administrators in terms of basic support such as adequate staff and office space to an ad hoc framework for providing training, compensation and job definitions. Posted Monday, January 5, 2009 Final 2008 Turnout RatesAll states have now reported their official or certified votes for president. There are some minor outstanding details that may lead to revision of some state numbers slightly upwards. My national turnout rate for those eligible to vote is 61.6% or 131.3 million ballots cast for president. This represents an increase of 1.5 percentage points over the 60.1% turnout rate of 2004. Posted Saturday, Dec. 13, 2008 Pew Charitable Trust Report: Data for DemocracyThe Pew Charitable Trusts "Make Voting Work Project" has released a new report with suggestions on how to improve election administration. You can read my contribution on voter registration databases in this report. Posted Monday, Dec. 8, 2008 Early Voting Stats: Special Encore Georgia Senate Run-off EditionSen. Saxby Chambliss will likely be pleased with these early vote numbers in the Georgia Senate run-off election that show substantially fewer women and minorities voting early than in the general election. Posted Thursday, Nov. 20, 2008; Last Updated Wednesday, Nov. 26 Preliminary 2008 Turnout RatesMy national turnout rate for those eligible to vote is 61.6% or 131.3 million ballots cast for president. This represents an increase of 1.5 percentage points over the 60.1% turnout rate of 2004. Posted Sunday, Nov. 9, 2008; Last Updated Saturday, Jan. 15, 2009. Early Voting StatsMillions of people have already cast their ballot for the 2008 presidential election. I'm going to try my best to keep up with these stats... Posted Saturday, Oct. 18, 2008, Updated Frequently Election of a Century?In a recent Politico op-ed, I argue that the turnout rate in the 2008 election has the potential to be the highest in a century of American politics. Here I elaborate, provide a graphic of turnout rates from 1789-2006 and for those hungry for the numbers, I have a spreadsheet. Posted Friday, Oct. 17, 2008 Analysis of 2008 New Registrations and Purging in Selected StatesWho are those new people being registered to vote? Who are the people being removed from the voter rolls? Some states provide easy access to their statewide voter registration files that permit answers to these questions. An analysis of new registrations in Nevada, North Carolina, and Ohio is presented here.... UPDATE: Analysis of new registrations in Nevada now available. Posted Saturday, Oct. 11, 2008, Updated Friday Oct. 17, 2008 Michael McDonald on World TourNot THAT Michael McDonald. Here are a few of the places where you can catch my political commentary in the near future:
Demographics of 2004 Voters: Current Population SurveyThe past can sometimes be a guide to the future, especially as one attempts to interpret election polls. Often the representativeness of a poll will be criticized on some grounds, such as having too few young people or too many whites. Here, I provide selected demographics of 2004 voters from the Current Population Survey which can help poll consumers to judge for themselves the validity of a poll... Posted Tuesday, Oct. 14, 2008 New 2000-2006 Turnout Rates and 2008 Voting-Age Population and Voting-Eligible Population EstimatesNew voting-eligible population estimates for 2000-2006 and estimates for the 2008 election are now available. Changes to turnout rates from 2000-2006 primarily reflect a change in the way in which I estimate the non-citizen population. Previously, I used the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey to estimate national and state-level non-citizen population. I now use the American Community Survey which is the on-going survey designed to replace the decennial census long form. The long form is where the decennial citizenship estimates have come from in the past, so this change is sensible. One other change of note for 2008 (only) is that I have for the first time estimated the number of overseas citizens by state. This estimate is provided in the accompanying Excel spreadsheet for anyone who wishes to remove this estimate for comparison to previous elections. Posted Saturday, Oct. 11, 2008
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| Dr. Michael McDonald Department of Public and International Affairs George Mason University 4400 University Drive 3F4 Fairfax, VA 22030-4444 Office: 703-993-4191 Fax: 703-993-1399 E-mail: mmcdon@gmu.edu |
