Projected California 2003 Recall Turnout Rate
I project a turnout rate of 43.4% among eligible voters for the upcoming California governor's election, based on a recent LA Times report indicating that 3.1 million absentee ballots have been requested. This number is used to make a projection of the turnout rate through the following steps:
Recent polls, such as CNN/Gallup, are estimating the California turnout rate to be 58% among voting-age population. The above estimate is for voting-eligible population, the voting-age population turnout rate is significantly lower at 34.9% due to the large number of noncitizens in California. This analysis of absentee voting indicates a much lower turnout rate than assumed in recent polls and suggests that Shwarzenegger's support is overstated since, according to the latest Field Poll, he draws the most support among all candidates from occasional voters, such as independents and cross-over partisan voters.
|Dr. Michael McDonald
Department of Public and International Affairs
George Mason University
4400 University Drive 3F4
Fairfax, VA 22030-4444