Voting-Age and Voting-Eligible Population Turnout Rates

This is an archived version of this web page.  To view the current version, please visit: http://elections.gmu.edu/voter_turnout.htm

This page is dedicated to resources to calculate voter turnout rates for the 1998, 2000, and 2002 elections. 

Notes on these data

At this time, the Census Bureau has not released Nov. 2002 voting-age population (VAP) estimates, nor has the Census Bureau released updates of the 1990-2000 VAP estimates, adjusted for the 2000 census (so-called "intercensial" estimates).  Census officials have indicated to me that there may be no VAP estimates for 2004.  This page provides these numbers, which are necessary to construct voter turnout rates for the 1998, 2000, and 2002 elections.  Procedures to calculate the 2002 Voting-Age Population were generously provided by Jennifer Day, Chief, Education and Social Stratification Branch of the Census Bureau.  These numbers are not official and should not be cited as a Census Bureau product.

Construction of the 1998, 2000, and 2002 Voting-Age Population (VAP) and Voting-Eligible Population (VEP) are performed by Dr. Michael P. McDonald, George Mason University (email:mmcdon@gmu.edu office phone: 703-993-4191), and follows procedures outlined below and in:

• Michael P. McDonald.  2002.  "The Turnout Rate Among Eligible Voters for U.S. States, 1980-2000."  State Politics and Policy Quarterly 2 (2).
• Michael P. McDonald and Samuel Popkin. 2001. "The Myth of the Vanishing Voter." American Political Science Review 95(4): 963-974.

I will continue to update these data as more information becomes available.  An Excel file with the numbers used to construct these data is available here LINK.  

Variable Definitions

• 1998 VAP, 2000 VAP, and 2002 VAP is generated following Procedure 1, provided by the Census Bureau and listed below the tables of numbers.  This procedure essentially uses the 2000 census as a base, and projects the 1998-1999 estimated change in the VAP forward and backwards.  The Census Bureau has not officially released these population estimates, and these estimates should not be cited as a Census Bureau product.
• Non-Citizens estimate is drawn from the April, 1 2000 STF 3 file.  (Data available through the Census Bureau "American FactFinder" LINK).
• Ineligible felons number is drawn from Department of Justice reports.  (Prisoners LINK and Parole and Probationers LINK.  For 2002, as of Dec 31, 2001.  For 2000, as of Dec. 31, 2000.  For 1998, as of Dec 31, 1998.).  I assume all Prisoners and Parolees are felons, and half of Probationers are felons (this estimate is drawn from DOJ reports).  A blank indicates the category of felons is allowed to vote in that state (see report by The Sentencing Project LINK).  I do not estimate the number of "permanently" disfranchised felons in the 12 states that have some form of post-correctional restriction on voting, since statistics on recidivism, deaths, and migration of felons is largely unknown.  
• Overseas VEP is drawn from McDonald and Popkin (2001) and is the 2000 estimate.  To my knowledge, there is no method to apportion overseas VEP to the states, so I do not make that adjustment here.
• VEP  is VAP minus Non-Citizens minus Ineligible Felons plus Overseas VEP. 

• Two further corrections that I do not make: I do not correct for the number of persons found mentally incapacitated by a court of law since there is no reliable estimate.  My guess from examination of National Health Statistics reports is that this population is somewhere around 250,000.  I also not not correct for the census net undercount of the population, since no state-level estimates are available at this time.  If the Census Bureau releases adjusted numbers, I will make them available here.  (Note, the Bush Administration has stated it will release adjusted numbers as a consequence of a lawsuit brought by the Oregon State Senate LINK).

• Vote for Highest Office.  In a non-presidential election year, Vote for Highest Office is the largest vote total for a statewide office.  When no statewide office was on the ballot, the sum of the congressional races is used instead.  In presidential election years, this is simply the presidential vote.

• Total Vote is the total number of ballots cast, when available.  Since not all states record total ballots, Vote for Highest Office is typically used to make comparisons of turnout between the states.  In 2002, Total Vote was 2.5% greater than Vote for Highest Office among those states reporting Total Vote.  The national estimate is an extrapolation based on this correspondence, and may change slightly as more states report Total Vote.

Office: 703-993-4191
Fax: 703-993-1399
Email: mmcdon@gmu.edu