Dr. Michael P. McDonald

Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
Associate Professor, George Mason University
Department of Public and International Affairs
4400 University Drive  MSN 3F4
Fairfax, VA 22030-4444

Office: 703-993-4191
Fax: 703-993-1399
Email: mmcdon@gmu.edu

Education 

Post-Doctoral Fellow. Harvard University. August 1998 – August 1999.
Ph.D. Political Science. University of California, San Diego. February, 1999.
BS Economics. California Institute of Technology. June, 1989.

Publications

Books

Michael P. McDonald and John Samples, eds. 2006. The Marketplace of Democracy: Electoral Competition and American Politics.  Washington DC: Brookings Press. (Order).

Micah Altman, Jeff Gill, and Michael P. McDonald. 2003. Numerical Issues in Statistical Computing for the Social Scientist.  Hoboken, NJ: Wiley and Sons.  (Order).

Peer-Reviewed Articles

Micah Altman and Michael P. McDonald. 2009. "BARD: Better Automated Redistricting." Journal of Statistical Software 31(3). Winner, 2009 American Political Science Association, Information and Technology Politics Section, Software of the Year.

Michael P. McDonald. 2008. "Portable Voter Registration." Political Behavior 20(4): 491–501.

Michael P. McDonald and Justin Levitt. 2008. "Seeing Double Voting: An Extension of the Birthday Problem." Election Law Journal 7(2): 111-22. (Conference paper version at SSRN).

Michael P. McDonald.  2007. "The True Electorate: A Cross-Validation of Voter File and Election Poll Demographics."  Public Opinion Quarterly 71(4): 588-602.

Michael P. McDonald.  2007. "Regulating Redistricting." PS: Political Science and Politics 40(4): 675-9.

Micah Altman, Jeff Gill, and Michael P. McDonald. 2007. "Accuracy: Tools for Accurate and Reliable Statistical Computing." Journal of Statistical Software 21(1).

David Lublin and Michael P. McDonald. 2006. "Is It Time to Draw the Line? The Impact of Redistricting on Competition in State House Elections." Election Law Journal 5(2): 144-57. (Free On-line). 

Michael P. McDonald. 2006. "Drawing the Line on District Competition."  PS: Political Science and Politics 39(1): 91-94.

Michael P. McDonald. 2006. "Re-Drawing the Line on District Competition." PS: Political Science and Politics 39(1): 99-102.

Micah Altman, Karin MacDonald, and Michael P. McDonald. 2005. "From Crayons to Computers: The Evolution of Computer Use in Redistricting." Social Science Computing Review 23(2) 334-46. (Free On-line).

Michael P. McDonald. 2004. "A Comparative Analysis of U.S. State Redistricting Institutions." State Politics and Policy Quarterly 4(4): 371-396.  (Free On-line).

Michael P. McDonald. 2003. "On the Over-Report Bias of the National Election Study." Political Analysis 11(2): 180-186.

Micah Altman and Michael P. McDonald. 2003. "Replication with Attention to Numerical Accuracy." Political Analysis 11(3): 302-307.

Michael P. McDonald. 2002. "The Turnout Rate Among Eligible Voters for U.S. States, 1980-2000." State Politics and Policy Quarterly 2(2): 199-212.  

Michael P. McDonald and Samuel Popkin. 2001. "The Myth of the Vanishing Voter." American Political Science Review 95(4): 963-974.  Reprinted 2006 in Classic Ideas and Current Issues in American Government, Bose and DiIulio, eds. 

Micah Altman and Michael P. McDonald. 2001. "Choosing Reliable Statistical Software." PS: Political Science and Politics.  43(3): 681-687.

Bernard Grofman, William Koetzel, Michael P. McDonald, and Thomas Brunell. 2000. "A New Look at Ticket Splitting: The Comparative Midpoints Model."  Journal of Politics 62(1): 24-50.

Samuel Kernell and Michael P. McDonald. 1999. "Congress and America's Political Development: Political Strategy and the Transformation of the Post Office from Patronage to Service." American Journal of Political Science 43(3): 792-811.  

Law Review Articles

Justin Levitt and Michael P. McDonald.  2007.  "Taking the 'Re' out of Redistricting: State Constitutional Provisions on Redistricting Timing."  Georgetown Law Review 95(4): 1247-86.

Peer-Reviewed Book Chapters

Michael P. McDonald. 2010. "Income Inequality and Participation in the United States." In United in Diversity? Comparing Social Models in European and America, Jens Alber and Neil Gilbert, eds.  New York, NY: Oxford University Press.

Michael P. McDonald. 2008. "Redistricting and the Decline of Competitive Congressional Districts." In Mobilizing Democracy: A Comparative Perspective on Institutional Barriers and Political Obstacles, Margaret Levi, James Johnson, Jack Knight, and Susan Stokes, eds. New York, NY: Russell Sage Publications. 

Michael P. McDonald. 2008. "Reforming Redistricting." In Democracy in the States: Experiments in Elections Reform, Bruce Cain, Todd Donovan, and Caroline Tolbert, eds. Washington, DC: Brookings Press.

Michael P. McDonald. 2006. "Who's Covered?  Section 4 Coverage Formula and Bailout."  In The Future of the Voting Rights Act, David Epstein, Richard H. Pildes, Rodolfo O. de la Garza, and Sharyn O'Halloran, eds.  New York, NY: Russell Sage Publications.

Micah Altman, Jeff Gill, and Michael P. McDonald. 2004. "A Comparison of the Numerical Properties of EI Methods" in Ecological Inference: New Methods and Strategies, Gary King, Ori Rosen, and Martin Tanner, eds.  New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.

Non-Peer-Reviewed Book Chapters

Michael P. McDonald and Thomas Schaller. (Forthcoming). "Voter Mobilization in the 2008 Presidential Election" in The Change Election: Money, Mobilization and Persuasion in the 2008 Federal Elections, David Magleby, ed. Philadelphia, PA: Temple Unviversity Press. (previously published as a Pew Charitible Trusts monograph).

Michael P. McDonald. (Forthcoming). "Congressional Redistricting" in Oxford Handbook of Congress, Frances Lee and Eric Schickler, eds. Cambridge, UK: Oxford University Press.

Michael P. McDonald. (Forthcoming). "Voter Turnout: Eligibility Has Its Benefits" in Controversies in Voting Behavior, 2nd Edition, Richard G. Niemi, Herbert F. Weisberg, and David Kimball, eds. Washington, DC: CQ Press.

Michael P. McDonald. (Forthcoming). "In Support of Non-Partisan Redistricting." in Debating Reform: Conflicting Perspectives on How to Mend American Government and Politics, Richard Ellis and Mike Nelson, eds. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press.

Michael P. McDonald.  (Forthcoming).  "American Voter Turnout in Historical Perspective."  In Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior, Jan Leighley, ed.  Cambridge, UK: Oxford University Press.

Michael P. McDonald. 2009. "Mechanical Effects of Duverger’s Law in the USA." In Duverger’s Law of Plurality Voting: The Logic of Party Competition in Canada, India, the United Kingdom and the United States, Bernard Grofman, André Blais and Shaun Bowler, eds. New York, NY: Springer.

Michael P. McDonald and Matthew Thornburg. 2008. "State and Local Redistricting" in Political Encyclopedia of U.S. States and Regions, Donald Haider-Markel, ed. New York, NY: MTM Publishing.

Michael P. McDonald.  2006.  "Redistricting and District Competition."  In The Marketplace of Democracy, Michael P. McDonald and John Samples, eds.  Washington, DC: Brookings Press. 

Micah Altman, Karin Mac Donald, and Michael P. McDonald.  2005.  "Pushbutton Gerrymanders? How Computing Has Changed Redistricting." in Party Lines: Competition, Partisanship and Congressional Redistricting, Bruce Cain and Thomas Mann, eds.  Washington, DC: Brookings Press.

Bruce Cain, Karin Mac Donald, and Michael P. McDonald.  2005.  "From Equality to Fairness: The Path of Political Reform Since Baker v Carr." in Party Lines: Competition, Partisanship and Congressional Redistricting, Bruce Cain and Thomas Mann, eds.  Washington, DC: Brookings Press.

Michael P. McDonald.  2005.  "Validity, Data Sources" in Encyclopedia of Social Measurement, Vol. 3.  Kimberly Kempf-Leonard, ed. San Deigo, CA: Elsevier Inc.  

Michael P. McDonald.  2005.  "Reporting Bias" in Polling in America: An Encyclopedia of Public Opinion.  Benjamin Radcliff and Samuel Best, eds.  Westport, CT: Greenwood Press.  

Non-Peer Reviewed Articles, Opinion-Editorials, and Reports

Michael P. McDonald. 2009. Voter Preregistration Programs. George Mason University Monograph.

Michael P. McDonald. 2009. Midwest Mapping Project. George Mason University Monograph.

Michael P. McDonald. 2009. "'A Magnificent Catastrophe' Retold by Edward Larson (book review)." The Election Law Journal 8(3): 234-47.

Michael P. McDonald.  2008.  "The Return of the Voter: Voter Turnout in the 2008 Presidential Election." The Forum 6(4).

Michael P. McDonald. 2008. "This May be the Election of the Century." The Politico, Sept. 9, 2008.

Michael P. McDonald and Matthew Thornburg. 2008. "The 2008 Virginia Election Admininstration Survey." Fairfax, VA: George Mason University.

Michael P. McDonald.  2008.  "Super Tuesday Turned into a Super Flop." Roll Call, Feb. 11, 2008.

Michael P. McDonald.  2006.  "Rocking the House: Competition and Turnout in the 2006 Midterm Election."  The Forum 4(3).

Michael P. McDonald.  2006.  "5 Myths About Turning Out the Vote."  The Washington Post.  Oct. 29, 2006, p. B3.

Micah Altman and Michael P. McDonald.  2006.  "How to Set a Random Clock (Remarks on Earnest 2006)."  PS: Political Science and Politics 39(4): 795.

Michael P. McDonald.  2006.  "Supreme Court Lets the Politicians Run Wild."  Roll Call. June 29, 2006.

Michael P. McDonald.  2006.  "American Voter Turnout: An Institutional Perspective by David Hill (book review)."  Political Science Quarterly 121(3): 516-7.

Michael P. McDonald. 2006. "Re-Redistricting Redux." The American Prospect. March 6, 2006.

Michael P. McDonald and Kimball Brace. "EAC Survey Sheds Light on Election Administration." Roll Call. Oct. 27, 2005.

Kimball Brace and Michael P. McDonald.  2005.  "Report to the Election Assistance Commission on the Election Day Survey."  Sept. 27, 2005.

Michael P. McDonald.  2004.  "2001: A Redistricting Odyssey."  State Politics and Policy Quarterly 4(4): 369-370.

Michael P. McDonald. 2004.  "Up, Up, and Away!  Turnout in the 2004 Presidential Election."  The Forum (2):4.  Dec. 2004.

Michael P. McDonald 2004.  “The Numbers Prove that 2004 May Signal More Voter Interest.”  Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.  Milwaukee, WI.

Michael P. McDonald.  2004.  "Democracy in America?"  La Vanguardia.  Barcelona, Spain.

Michael P. McDonald. 2004.  "Drawing the Line on the 2004 Congressional Elections."  Legislative Studies Section Newsletter (Fall): 14-18.

Michael P. McDonald.  2003.  "Enhancing Democracy in Virginia." Connection Newspapers. March 24.

Michael P. McDonald.  2003.  "California Recall Voting: Nuggets of California Gold for Political Behavior."  The Forum (1) 4. 

Michael P. McDonald.  2001.  "Piecing Together the Illinois Redistricting Puzzle." Illinois Issues.  March, 2001.

Samuel Popkin and Michael P. McDonald. 2000. "Turnout's Not as Bad as You Think."  The Washington Post.  Nov. 5: B-1.  

Micah Altman and Michael P. McDonald. 1999. "Resources for Testing and Enhancement of Statistical Software" in The Political Methodologist 9(1).

Michael P. McDonald. 1999. "Representational Theories of the Polarization of the House of Representatives" in Legislative Studies Section Newsletter, Extension of Remarks 22(2): 8-10.

Samuel Popkin and Michael P. McDonald. 1998. "Who Votes? A Comparison of NES, CPS, and VNS Polls." DLC Bluebook. Sept. 1998.

Software Packages

Micah Altman and Michael P. McDonald.  2007.  "BARD: Better Automated Redistricting." R package available through CRAN. Source code available at Sourceforge.

Micah Altman, Jeff Gill, and Michael P. McDonald.  2004.  "Accuracy: Tools for testing and improving accuracy of statistical results."  R package available through CRAN. 

Grants

Citiizen Mapping Project. 2009-2010. ($124,000 & $98,000). Project funded by the Sloan Foundation. An award to George Mason University enables development of software that, essentially, permits on-line redistricting through commonly used internet mapping programs. A second award to the Brookings Institution and American Enterprise Institute provides organizational support, including the convening of an advisory board.

Pre-Registration Programs. 2008-9. ($86,000). Project Funded by the Pew Charitable Trusts' Make Voting Work Initiative to examine pre-registration programs (voter registration for persons under age 18) in Florida and Hawaii.

Sound Redistricting Reform.  2006-9.  ($405,000). Project funded by the Joyce Foundation, conducted jointly with the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU to investigate impacts of redistricting reform in Midwestern states.   

Electoral Competition Project.  2005-6.  ($200,000)  Project funded by The Armstrong Foundation, the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the JEHT Foundation, The Joyce Foundation, The Kerr Foundation, Inc., and anonymous donors.  Jointly conducted by the Brookings Institution and Cato Institute to investigate the state of electoral competition in the United States.  

George Mason University Provost Summer Research Grant.   2004.  ($5,000). 

ICPSR Data Document Initiative. 1999.  Awarded beta test grant.  Member, advisory committee on creation of electronic codebook standards.

Academic Experience

Courses Taught: Public Opinion and Voting Behavior,  Parties and Campaigns, Intro to American Politics, Congress, Legislative Politics, Research Methods, Advanced Research Methods, Freshman Seminar: Topics in Race and Gender Policies, and Legislative Staff Internship Program.

George Mason University

• Associate Professor. May 2007 - Present.
• Assistant Professor. Aug 2002 - May, 2007.

• Non-Resident Senior Fellow. January 2006 - Present.
• Visiting Fellow.  June 2004 - December 2006.

University of Illinois, Springfield. Assistant Professor. Aug 2000 - June 2002.
Joint appointment in Political Studies Department and Legislative Studies Center. 

Vanderbilt University. Assistant Professor. Aug 1999 – Aug 2000.

Harvard-MIT Data Center. Post-Doctoral Research Fellow. Sept. 1998 – Aug 1999.
Developed Virtual Data Center, a web-based data sharing system for academics.  Maintained Record of American Democracy (U.S. precinct-level election data).

University of California-San Diego

• Assistant to the Director for University of California, Washington DC program. Sept 1997 – June 1998.
  Instructor for research methods seminar for UCSD Washington interns.
• Visiting Assistant Professor. Spring Quarter 1997.
• Visiting Assistant Professor. Summer Session, Aug 1996 and Aug 1997.
• Teaching Assistant/Grader. Aug 1991 – March 1997.

Professional Service

• Guest Editor.  Dec 2004 issue.
• Editorial Board Member 2004-2006.

Related Professional Experience

• Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International.  Nov. 2004; Nov. 2006; Feb. 2008; Nov. 2008. Worked national exit polling organization "Decision Desk."
• ABC News.  Nov. 2002.  Worked "Decision Desk."
• NBC News. Aug 1996.  Analyzed polls during the Republican National Convention.

• Research Triangle Institute. 2008-2009. Consultant for Election Assistance Commission, 2008 Election Day Survey.
• Expert Witness. 2008. League of Women Voters of Florida v Browning (08-21243-CV-ALTONAGA/BROWN)
• Pew Center for the States. 2007. Consultant for Trends to Watch project.
• Expert witness. 2007. Washington Association of Churches v Reed (CV06-0726).
• Electoral Assistance Commission. 2005. Analyzed election administration surveys.
• Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission. 2001-2003. Consultant.
• Expert witness. 2003. Minority Coalition for Fair Redistricting, et al. v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission CV2002-004380 (2003).
• Expert witness. 2003. Rodriguez v Pataki 308 F. Supp. 2d 346 (S.D.N.Y 2004).
• Consulting expert. 2002. O'Lear v. Miller No. 222 F. Supp. 2d 850 (E.D. Mich.)
• Expert witness. 2001-2002. In Re 2001 Redistricting Cases (Case No. S-10504).
• Consulting Expert. 2001. United States v. Upper San Gabriel Valley Municipal Water District (C.D. Cal. 2000).
• California State Assembly. 1991. Consultant.
• Pactech Data and Research. Research Associate. Aug 1989 - June 1991. Performed database development and statistical analysis for a California political consulting firm's clients including: Democratic National Committee, Gorden Shwenkmeyer (a national political telemarketing firm), Southern California Gas, and Justice Department for the voting rights case Garza v LA Board of Supervisors.

• Ron Christian for Virginia State Senate.  June-November, 2003.
• Theresa Martinez for Virginia House of Delegates.  May, 2003.
• Senior Consultant. California State Assembly. Nov. - Dec 1998. Consultant on various programming projects.
• California Assembly Democrats. June – November 1998.
• Susan Davis & Howard Wayne for CA State Assembly ‘96. 1996.
• Intern. June - Sept 1995. UC-San Diego, Science and Technology Policy and Projects. Identified university federal contracts and grants and tracked congressional activity affecting those funds. Helped organize conference on future of U.S. science and technology policy.

• Hickman-Brown.  July, 2000.  Analyzed national and state level exit and CPS polls for use in various campaigns. Analyzed surveys for congressional, state, and local political campaigns.
• Decision Research. Aug 1994 – Dec 1994.
• Speaker Jose de Venecia of the Philippines.  Feb, 1997.
• Joong-Ang Ilbo/RAND. Oct, 1996.  Analyzed survey of Korean attitudes on national security issues.
• UCSD.  Nov. 1991. Conducted and analyzed survey of  student attitudes.