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2008 Presidential Primary Turnout Rates
Last updated May 8, 2008

In the table below, two estimates of the voting population are provided.  One is the VAP or "Voting-Age Population" and is an estimate of the number of persons age 18 and older residing in a state.  The VEP or "Voting-Eligible Population" is an estimate of the number of persons residing in a state who are eligible to vote.  These two numbers are not equivalent since non-citizens and ineligible felons (depending on state law) are included in the VAP but are excluded from the VEP estimates.  Although I highly recommend using VEP, I provide both numbers as a service to people who still rely on VAP.

These estimates of turnout may be different from many state Election Boards' statistics which report turnout as a percent of registered voters.  Registration numbers are not comparable across states or across time within the same state because state registration laws and frequency of purging of inactive voters from registration rolls vary.  I discuss some of the problems of calculating voter turnout as a percent of registered voters here. However, the limitation to using these voting-eligible estimates as measures of primary participation is that they do not provide partisan breakdowns. I have constructed comparable turnout rate numbers for 2004 and 2000, though these numbers are not complete for all presidential nomination contests, particularly hard-to-find later caucuses. 

All estimates are of the first of the month for a given election date.  Where possible, I provide a link to the source of turnout data for a given election.  If no link is provided, data are from Associated Press reporting.  Presidential nomination dates are drawn from electionline.org.

Commentary

2008 Presidential Primary
Date State Election Type VAP Estimate VEP Estimate Turnout VEP Turnout Rate
Jan. 3 Iowa Caucus 2,296,230 2,171,355 236,000 (D)
118,696 (R)
354,355 (Total)		 16.3%
Jan. 5 Wyoming Rep. Caucus 402,107 391,545 1,200 (R) 0.3%
Jan. 8 New Hampshire Primary 1,035,537 1,004,879 239,328 (R)
288,058 (D)
527,376 (Total)		 52.5%
Jan. 15 Michigan Primary 7,655,929 7,348,195 868,002 (R)
592,261 (D)
1,481,761 (Total)		 20.2%
Jan. 19 Nevada Caucus 1,959,910 1,703,913 117,559 (D)
44,315 (R)
161,874 (Total)		 9.5%
  South Carolina Rep. Primary 3,384,036 3,219,198 445,677 (R) 30.4%
Jan. 26 South Carolina Dem. Primary 3,384,036 3,219,198 532,468 (D)
978,145 (Total)
Jan. 29 Florida Primary 14,493,282 12,540,365   1,734,456 (D)
1,924,346 (R)
4,239,350 (Total)		 33.8%
Feb. 1-3 Maine Rep. Caucus 1,052,503 1,035,982 5,338 (R) 0.1%
Feb. 5 Combined Turnout Rate of Feb. 5 Primary States (excluding NM Dem Primary) 31.1%
Combined Turnout Rate of Feb. 5 Caucus States (where two caucuses were held) 6.3%
Alabama Primary 3,553,574 3,439,561 536,293 (D)
554,248 (R)
1,090,541 (Total)		 31.7%
  Alaska Caucus 501,849 476,744 8,621(D)
15,000 (R Proj.)
23,621 (Total Proj.)		 5.0%
  Arizona Primary 4,791,404 4,090,072 443,324 (D)
527,335 (R)
970,659 (Total)		 23.7%
  Arkansas Primary 2,164,054 2,070,312 310,915 (D)
226,001 (R)
780 (G)
537,696 (Total)		 26.0%
  California Primary 27,405,420 21,725,632 5,066,993 (D)
2,932,811 (R)
46,022 (A)
35,844 (G)
16,858 (L)
6,444 (P)
9,068,415 (Total)		 41.7%
  Colorado Caucus 3,702,272 3,402,196 120,001 (D)
65,400 (R)
185,401 (Total)		 5.5%
  Connecticut Primary 2,712,794 2,446,727 337,269 (D)
146,333 (R)
483,602 (Total)		 19.8%
  Delaware Primary 666,836 607,748 94,675 (D)
49,281 (R)
143,956 (Total)		 23.7%
  Georgia Primary 7,188,747 6,383,899 1,060,767 (D)
963,447 (R)
2,024,214 (Total)		 32.7%
  Idaho Dem. Caucus 1,118,847 1,028,790 21,224 (D) 2.1%
  Illinois Primary 9,737,769 8,843,831 2,038,614 (D)
899,422 (R)
2,672 (G)
2,938,036 (Total)		 33.2%
  Kansas Dem. Caucus 2,094,336 1,990,002 37,089 (D) 1.9%
  Massachusetts Primary 5,016,985 4,496,320 1,244,133 (D)
496,171 (R)
1,740,304 (Total)		 38.7%
  Minnesota Caucus 3,979,584 3,712,351    206,559 (D)
62,418 (R)
82 (C)
269,059 (Total)		 7.2%
  Missouri Primary 4,494,687 4,339,185 823,376 (D)
588,849 (R)
2,056 (L)
1,414,281 (Total)		 32.6%
  New Jersey Primary 6,694,828 5,520,305 1,108,044 (D)
558,727 (R)
1,666,771 (Total)		 30.2%
  New Mexico Dem. Caucus 1,486,932 1,365,792 153,299 (D) 11.2%
  New York Primary 14,858,151 12,902,219 1,891,143 (D)
670,078 (R)
2,561,221 (Total)		 19.9%
  North Dakota Caucus 495,311 485,606 19,102 (D)
9,785 (R)
28,887 (Total)		 5.9%
  Oklahoma Primary 2,729,678 2,617,356 417,095 (D)
334,980 (R)
752,075 (Total)		 28.7%
  Tennessee Primary 4,705,064 4,449,045 622,586 (D)
552,214 (R)
1,174,800 (Total)		 26.4%
  Utah Primary 1,828,348 1,728,786 124,307 (D)
284,790 (R)
409,097 (Total)		 23.7%
  West Virginia Rep. Caucus 1,436,489 1,422,368 1,100 (R)a 0.1%
Feb. 9 Kansas Rep. Caucus 2,094,336 1,990,002 19,432 (R)
56,521 (Total)		 2.4%
  Louisiana Primary 2,973,037 2,833,599 384,243 (D)
161,151 (R)
545,394 (Total)		 19.3%
  Nebraska Dem. Caucus 1,339,483 1,269,738 38,670 (D) 3.0%
Washington Caucus 5,032,124 4,614,253    
Feb. 10 Maine Dem. Caucus 1,052,503 1,035,982 44,670 (D)
50,008 (Total)		 4.8%
Feb. 12 District of Columbia Primary 467,754 422,901 114,012 (D)
5,870 (R)
492 (DC)
120,374 (Total)		 28.5%
  Maryland Primary 4,310,977 3,842,213 760,314 (D)
286,843 (R)
1,047,157 (Total)		 27.3%
  Virginia Primary 5,955,040 5,387,519 973,931 (D)
475,484 (R)
1,449,415 (Total)		 26.9%
Feb. 19 Hawaii Dem. Caucus 1,008,710 930,634    
Washington Primary 5,032,124 4,614,253 557,435 (D)c
412,037 (R)
1,257,858 (Total)		 27.3%
  Wisconsin Primary 4,302,925 4,115,067 1,099,661 (D)
403,568 (R)
1,503,229 (Total)		 36.5%
Mar. 4 Ohio Primary 8,754,576 8,518,501 2,233,156 (D)
1,018,865 (R)
3,450,893 (Total)		 40.5%
  Rhode Island Primary 827,524 747,564 186,036 (D)
26,970 (R)
213,006 (Total)		 28.5%
  Texas Primary 17,718,698 15,011,648 2,865,945 (D)
1,384,563 (R)
4,250,508 (Total)		 28.3%
  Vermont Primary 497,096 480,385 151,380 (D)
36,730 (R)
188,110 (Total)		 39.2%
Mar. 8 Wyoming Dem. Caucus 403,095 392,533 8,753 (D)
9,953 (Total)		 2.5%
Mar. 11 Mississippi Primary 2,158,987 2,066,840 411,495 (D)
136,527 (R)
548,022 (Total)		 26.5%
April 22 Pennsylvania Primary 9,730,156 9,431,577 2,269,156
792,211
3,061,367		 32.5%
May 6 Indiana Primary 4,815,124 4,666,581 1,273,107 (D)
410,516 (R)
1,683,623 (Total)		 36.1%
  North Carolina Primary 6,960,051 6,401,965 1,563,958 (D)
515,755 (R)
2,099,961 (Total)		 32.8%
May 13 Nebraska Rep. Primary 1,342,038 1,272,293    
  West Virginia Dem. Primary 1,437,609 1,423,487 357,031 (D)
117,936 (R)
475,167 (Total)		 33.4%
May 20 Kentucky Primary 3,261,219 3,157,666    
Oregon Primary 2,945,747 2,745,234    
May 27 Idaho Rep. Primary 1,126,215 1,036,158    
June 3 Montana Primary 746,544 734,728    
  New Mexico Rep. Primary 1,493,448 1,372,307    
  South Dakota Primary 600,024 582,961    

(a) This is the number of West Virginia Republican State Convention Delegates.  (c) The Washington state primary on the Democratic side was a straw vote only.  Delegates were selected at the Feb 9 caucus.  Republicans used a mix of primary and caucuses to select their delegates.  The Total ballots cast includes an estimate of uncounted ballots.

 

 

   Dr. Michael McDonald
Department of Public and International Affairs
George Mason University
4400 University Drive - 3F4
Fairfax, VA 22030-4444

Office: 703-993-4191
Fax: 703-993-1399
Email: mmcdon@gmu.edu