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2010 Early Voting
Last updated:
November 2, 2010 2:52 PM
Update
In-person early voting has concluded in all but a few states (see a listing of early voting dates). I have constructed 2010 pre-election estimates of the percentage of votes that will be cast early and turnout rates. It will be some time after the election when it will be possible to determine the percentage of votes cast prior to Election Day. Most likely, it appears that the 2010 percentage is the highest for any midterm election, but did not exceed the 2008 presidential election -- which was the highest percentage of early voters in modern elections. I add the qualifier "modern" since prior to the 1840s, elections were held over mutliple days and there are no historical records.
I blog on early voting and other election-related analysis at the Pollster section of Huffington Post. A recent post is an analysis of where we stand on early voting, and what it may mean to the election. My most recent post examines a late surge for Democrats in Nevada. As a reference, I collected similar 2008 statistics for many states and localities.
A special debt of gratitude to the Associated Press Elections Unit for providing me with statistics for some states that are not providing their numbers to the public via the web. I am also indebted to the election administrators who are willing to share their early voting reports with me, if they do not post on-line.
What is Early Voting?
Early voting has dramatically increased in recent years. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the percentage of voters who cast their ballot prior to Election Day increased from 20% in 2004 to 30% in 2008. These recent rates are in stark contrast to the 4% who voted early in 1972.
Figure 1. Early Voting Rates, 1972-2008.
Source: Census Bureau's Current Population Survey
One of the reasons for increased early voting is that states have adopted expansive early voting laws. Generally, states offer two forms of early voting: vote-by-mail and voting at special early voting precincts. States that promote vote-by-mail may do so through "no-excuse" absentee voting, sign ups that allow voters to always receive a mail ballot, and by holding their elections entirely by mail. Notably, Oregon became the first state to adopt all-mail ballot statewide elections by a voter initiative passed in 1998. Some of these states allow voters to cast their ballot in-person at an election office, and others go one step further by opening special polling places where anyone can vote early. Notably, North Carolina permits same-day voter registration for persons voting early at special polling places, but does not allow it for Election Day voters. Other states may effectively have same-day registration for in-person early voters when their registration and early voting periods overlap.
Another reason for the increased percentage of early voters is that once a state adopts early voting, voters become familiar with the option and early voting rates generally trend upwards. Notably, local jurisdictions in Washington moved to all-mail ballot elections as the percentage of mail ballot voters neared 100%.
What is in store for early voting in 2010? There was a slight retrenchment in the percentage of early voters from 2004 to 2006, when the early voting rate dipped to 18.5%. We might expect this again since midterm and primary voters tend to hold on to their ballots a little longer, perhaps because they want more information because the top of the ballot candidates are not as well-known to them as presidential candidates. However, another important consideration is which states will hold competitive elections and turnout will be higher. Some of the hotly-contested elections are occurring in states with permissive early voting laws, such as California, Colorado, Florida, Oregon, and Washington. Early voting may thus either be even or slightly lower than it was in 2008.
The early voting statistics are tracked below. In addition to the most recently reported total number of early votes in 2010 by state or local jurisdiction, I provide the percentage of early votes in 2006 and the total number of votes cast in 2006. The number of early votes in 2010 divided by the 2006 total ballots provides a sense of the relative usage of early voting in 2010 and a sense of overall turnout. For a similar table of early voting statistics for the 2008 election, see here.
Where possible, I provide additional statistics, such as the party registration of early voters, gender, and age. To be clear, party registration statistics are NOT actual votes. A registered Democrat or Republican is free to vote for candidates of the other party. However, party registrants are likely to support candidates of their party, so these statistics provide a clue as to the state of the race among the early voters. While President Obama performed well among early voters in 2008, it should be noted that in previous elections Republicans generally performed better among early voters as early voters tended to fit a more Republican profile: they tended to be older, better educated, and be composed of fewer minorities. It will be interesting to observe if 2010 will mark a continuation of 2008 or a reversion to previous elections.
Early Voting Statistics
| State Mainpage |
Early Voting Statistics on the Web |
2010 Total Early Vote |
Selected
Statistics |
2010
Early Vote/
2006
Total Vote |
2006
Total
Ballots Counted |
2006
% Early*
|
2008
%
Early |
Last Updated |
| United States |
|
19,090,970 |
|
22.3% |
85,769,132 |
22.4% |
30.6% |
|
| Alabama |
|
|
|
|
1,250,401 |
2.4% |
4.1% |
|
| Alaska |
|
34,966 |
|
14.7% |
238,307 |
17.5% |
30.0% |
11/1/10 |
| Arizona |
|
877,695 |
|
56.5% |
1,553,032 |
47.2% |
52.9% |
11/1/10 |
| Arkansas |
|
284,971 |
|
36.5% |
780,409 |
30.1% |
37.1% |
11/1/10 |
California
|
html |
3,182,073 |
|
35.8% |
8,899,059 |
41.5% |
44.8% |
11/2/10 |
| Colorado |
|
1,211,297 |
| Party |
Percent |
| Dem |
34.6% |
| Rep |
40.7% |
| Other |
0.6% |
| Ind |
24.0% |
|
76.4% |
1,586,105 |
54.4% |
78.9% |
11/2/10 |
| Connecticut |
|
|
|
|
1,162,391 |
5.6% |
10.4% |
|
| Delaware |
|
|
|
|
258,053 |
3.2% |
5.2% |
|
| District of Columbia |
|
|
|
|
122,356 |
4.1% |
10.5% |
|
Florida
|
|
2,172,599 |
| Party |
Percent |
Mode |
Percent |
| Dem |
36.5% |
In-Person |
47.1% |
| Ind |
14.3% |
Mail |
52.9% |
| Rep |
49.2% |
|
|
|
44.5% |
4,884,544 |
31.1% |
51.8% |
11/1/10 |
| Georgia |
|
774,690 |
|
36.1% |
2,143,845 |
18.0% |
53.1% |
11/2/10 |
| Hawaii |
|
120,292 |
|
34.5% |
348,988 |
34.0% |
38.5% |
10/28/10 |
| Idaho |
|
55,575 |
|
12.1% |
458,927 |
12.3% |
29.6% |
10/27/10 |
| Illinois (20 jurisdictions incl. Chicago) |
|
447,821 |
|
12.5% |
3,586,292 |
6.9% |
22.2% |
11/1/10 |
| Cook County (xcld. Chicago) |
html |
83,896 |
|
12.3% |
680,693 |
5.0% |
|
10/28/10 |
| Indiana |
|
194,187 |
|
11.3% |
1,719,351 |
9.9% |
23.6% |
10/27/10 |
| Marion County |
|
21,125 |
|
10.2% |
207,640 |
8.1% |
|
10/31/10 |
| Iowa |
pdf |
349,216 |
| Party |
Percent |
| Dem |
43.7% |
| Rep |
38.0% |
| Ind |
18.2% |
| Other |
0.1% |
|
32.6% |
1,071,509 |
22.8% |
36.0% |
11/2/10 |
| Kansas |
|
136,486 |
|
15.8% |
864,083 |
19.3% |
34.7% |
10/27/10 |
| Johnson County |
html |
62,365 |
|
33.3% |
187,379 |
28.4% |
|
10/30/10 |
| Kentucky |
|
60,727 |
|
4.4% |
1,370,062 |
4.8% |
6.3% |
11/1/10 |
| Louisiana |
pdf |
125,054 |
| Party |
Percent |
Race |
Percent |
Gender |
Percent |
Mode |
Percent |
| Dem |
46.7% |
White |
76.4% |
Female |
52.5% |
In-Person |
92.1% |
| Rep |
42.3% |
Black |
21.3% |
Male |
47.5% |
Mail |
7.9% |
| Other |
10.9% |
Other |
2.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
13.1% |
954,896 |
4.5% |
14.7% |
10/27/10 |
| Maine |
text |
133,768 |
| Party |
Percent |
| Dem |
37.7% |
| Green |
2.1% |
| Rep |
34.5% |
| Ind |
25.7% |
|
24.3% |
550,865 |
17.6% |
31.3% |
11/2/10 |
| Maryland |
html |
286,250 |
| Party |
Percent |
Mode |
Percent |
| Dem |
63.9% |
In-Person |
76.7% |
| Other |
9.4% |
Mail |
23.3% |
| Rep |
26.7% |
|
|
|
15.8% |
1,809,237 |
8.6% |
7.9% |
11/2/10 |
| Massachusetts |
|
|
|
|
2,243,835 |
3.4% |
6.5% |
|
| Michigan |
|
|
|
|
3,852,008 |
19.5% |
20.4% |
|
| Minnesota* |
|
71,000 |
|
3.2% |
2,217,552 |
6.6% |
10.0% |
10/26/10 |
| Mississippi |
|
|
|
|
610,921 |
3.2% |
2.9% |
|
| Missouri |
|
|
|
|
2,178,278 |
5.7% |
11.1% |
|
| Montana |
xls |
155,864 |
|
37.9% |
411,061 |
29.3% |
39.7% |
11/1/10 |
| Nebraska |
|
82,506 |
| Party |
Percent |
| Dem |
35.4% |
| Other |
9.6% |
| Rep |
55.0% |
|
13.5% |
610,499 |
17.9% |
21.8% |
10/29/10 |
| Nevada (see note below)* |
html |
419,983 |
| Party |
Percent |
| Dem |
44.2% |
| Ind |
15.7% |
| Rep |
40.2% |
Statewide statistics are statewide in-person early voters as of 10/22/10
plus
all mail ballots from Clark and Washoe counties and additional in-person early voters as of 10/31/10.
Mail ballot statistics are reported by the Associated Press. |
71.6% |
586,274 |
51.7% |
66.9% |
11/1/10 |
| Clark County |
zip |
258,283 |
| Party |
Percent |
| Dem |
46.2% |
| Ind |
16.4% |
| Rep |
37.4% |
|
71.3% |
362,790 |
53.3% |
|
10/29/10 |
| Washoe County |
html |
69,211 |
| Party |
Percent |
| Dem |
40.3% |
| Ind |
15.0% |
| Rep |
44.7% |
|
57.3% |
120,806 |
46.7% |
|
10/29/10 |
| New Hampshire |
|
|
|
|
418,550 |
5.8% |
10.0% |
|
| New Jersey (13 of 21 counties) |
|
111,089 |
|
4.8% |
2,315,643 |
3.9% |
7.4% |
11/1/10 |
| New Mexico |
|
274955 |
|
48.4% |
568,597 |
40.2% |
62.3% |
11/2/10 |
| Bernalillo County |
pdf |
114,054 |
| Party |
Percent |
Mode |
Percent |
| Dem |
46.5% |
In-Person |
70.9% |
| Rep |
42.5% |
Mail |
29.1% |
| Other |
10.9% |
|
|
|
57.4% |
198,611 |
Unk. |
|
10/31/10 |
| New York (56 of 62 counties) |
|
118,994 |
|
2.5% |
4,703,830 |
3.4% |
3.6% |
11/1/10 |
| North Carolina |
zip |
956,910 |
| Party |
Percent |
Race |
Percent |
Gender |
Percent |
Age |
Percent |
Mode |
Percent |
| Dem |
46.4% |
White |
76.8% |
Female |
53.4% |
18-29 |
5.9% |
E-mail |
0.1% |
| Lib |
0.1% |
Black |
20.9% |
Male |
45.9% |
30-44 |
14.1% |
Fax |
0.0% |
| Rep |
36.5% |
Other |
2.4% |
Unknown |
0.7% |
45-64 |
44.8% |
In-Person |
94.5% |
| Ind |
17.0% |
|
|
|
|
65+ |
35.2% |
Mail |
5.4% |
|
46.7% |
2,036,451 |
21.0% |
60.6% |
11/2/10 |
| North Dakota |
|
66,181 |
|
30.0% |
220,479 |
16.4% |
37.2% |
10/28/10 |
| Ohio (79 of 88 counties)* |
|
778,472 |
|
18.6% |
4,184,072 |
15.4% |
25.2% |
10/31/10 |
| Cuyahoga County |
pdf |
180,408 |
|
38.4% |
469,930 |
38.4% |
38.5% |
10/31/10 |
| Franklin County |
html |
135,654 |
|
35.2% |
385,863 |
35.2% |
|
10/31/10 |
| Hamilton County |
|
62,363 |
|
21.0% |
296,420 |
25.7% |
|
10/30/10 |
| Knox County |
html |
4,406 |
|
20.7% |
21,329 |
20.7% |
|
10/30/10 |
| Montgomery County |
html |
37,255 |
|
17.0% |
219,153 |
17.0% |
|
10/30/10 |
| Ross County |
html |
5,240 |
|
21.5% |
24,345 |
16.9% |
|
10/30/10 |
| Summit County |
html |
33,226 |
|
16.2% |
205,714 |
12.9% |
|
10/30/10 |
| Tuscarawas County |
html |
6,016 |
|
19.0% |
31,593 |
16.1% |
|
10/29/10 |
| Oklahoma |
|
|
|
|
926,462 |
6.0% |
13.0% |
|
| Oregon (from AP, as of 10:30am on 11/2/10) |
pdf |
1,111,201 |
| Party |
Percent |
| Dem |
44.4% |
| Ind |
14.1% |
| Rep |
36.9% |
| Oth |
4.5% |
|
79.4% |
1,399,650 |
100% |
100.0% |
11/2/10 |
| Pennsylvania |
|
109,601 |
| Party |
Percent |
| Dem |
39.6% |
| Ind |
6.2% |
| Rep |
54.2% |
|
2.7% |
4,096,077 |
4.0% |
3.9% |
10/29/10 |
| Rhode Island |
|
|
|
|
392,882 |
3.9% |
5.1% |
|
| South Carolina |
|
141,578 |
|
12.7% |
1,117,311 |
6.9% |
17.4% |
11/1/10 |
| South Dakota |
|
|
|
|
341,105 |
27.3% |
25.2% |
|
| Tennessee |
html |
736,885 |
|
39.4% |
1,868,363 |
47.4% |
59.2% |
10/29/10 |
| Texas (15 largest counties) |
html |
1,724,486 |
|
39.2% |
4,399,068 |
39.9% |
44.0% |
10/28/10 |
| Utah |
|
72,758 |
|
12.2% |
582,561 |
13.9% |
37.1% |
10/25/10 |
| Vermont |
|
|
|
|
263,025 |
20.2% |
29.0% |
|
| Virginia |
|
108,103 |
|
4.5% |
2,398,589 |
4.9% |
13.5% |
11/1/10 |
Washington
(37 of 39 counties) |
|
1,459,979 |
|
70.0% |
2,085,074 |
88.6% |
89.2% |
11/2/10 |
| Benton County |
pdf |
34,406 |
|
68.4% |
50,276 |
100% |
100% |
10/29/10 |
| Chelan County |
xls |
15,094 |
|
64.2% |
23,518 |
100% |
100% |
10/28/10 |
| Clark County |
html |
91,348 |
|
78.4% |
116,505 |
100% |
100% |
11/1/10 |
| Cowlitz County |
pdf |
26,944 |
|
85.1% |
31,643 |
100% |
100% |
11/1/10 |
| Franklin County |
html |
11,573 |
|
88.8% |
13,034 |
100% |
100% |
11/1/10 |
| King County |
html |
409,913 |
|
64.5% |
635,753 |
71.3% |
100% |
11/1/10 |
| Kitsap County |
html |
68,708 |
|
75.4% |
91,073 |
100% |
100% |
11/1/10 |
| Pacific County |
html |
8,010 |
|
90.4% |
8,861 |
100% |
100% |
11/1/10 |
| Pierce County |
pdf |
145,625 |
|
67.2% |
216,574 |
84.2% |
100% |
11/1/20 |
| Snohomish County |
pdf |
141,936 |
|
68.2% |
208,243 |
99.8% |
100% |
10/1/10 |
| Spokane County |
pdf |
117,188 |
|
74.5% |
157,335 |
100% |
100% |
11/1/10 |
| Thurston County |
html |
62,425 |
|
73.4% |
85,011 |
100% |
100% |
11/1/10 |
| Whatcom County |
html |
54,457 |
|
78.0% |
69,782 |
100% |
100% |
11/1/10 |
| Yakima County |
pdf |
40,834 |
|
73.5% |
55,584 |
100% |
100% |
11/1/10 |
| West Virginia |
html |
113,716 |
| Party |
Percent |
Mode |
Percent |
| Dem |
54.1% |
In-Person |
95.1% |
| Rep |
35.8% |
Mail |
4.9% |
| Ind |
8.0% |
|
|
| Other |
2.1% |
|
|
Partisan registration statistics for in-person early voters only |
24.0% |
473,014 |
13.6% |
23.7% |
11/1/10 |
| Wisconsin |
|
|
|
|
2,183,155 |
7.8% |
21.2% |
|
| Wyoming |
|
29,042 |
| Party |
Percent |
| Dem |
20.1% |
| Ind |
6.8% |
| Rep |
73.1% |
|
14.8% |
196,217 |
21.7% |
25.2% |
10/28/10 |
* Notes: State Level 2006 Percent Early from the Associated Press, Election Research and Quality Control. County Level 2006 Percent Early from the U.S. Election Assistance Commission's 2006 Election Day Survey. State Level 2008 Early Voting Statistics are compiled here. As soon as possible, I will add 2008 county level statistics from the 2008 Election Day Survey. Please bear with me as this is a lot of data to crunch!
A special note about Minnesota: Provided numbers are rounded.
A special note about Nevada: Nevada publicly reports statistics for in-person early voters only, which does not include mail ballots. The statewide numbers include mail ballots for Clark and Washoe counties provided by the Associated Press. The AP is not providing a breakdown of mail ballots by county, so mail ballots are not included in the county statistics. Clark and Washoe counties sometimes report information in a more timely manner than the state. In some instances, I may update the state totals with counts from these counties.
A special note about Ohio: Statewide statistics are inclusive of the Ohio counties reported here. These statewide statistics are provided by the Associated Press, and I have no county breakdowns. Ohio provides statistics for "party." This is not party registration, rather, it is the record of the last party primary a voter participated in. I therefore choose not to report these statistics as they are not as meaningful as party registration statistics reported by states with party registration.
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